10'cold jobs 2003-2010:

Whilst substantial declines in overall numbers can be expected, postal occupations will also evolve and require up-skilling e.g. a shift from simply delivering items to operating more specialised courier services requiring the use of IT for parcel monitoring etc.


Printers
The reasons for a future decline in the number of print workers are obvious. Increasing sophistication of PC based publishing and printing means that at relatively low cost more and more print activities can be brought in-house. One needs only to compare the quality and cost of ink jet and/or laser printers now, as compared with ten years ago, in order to grasp the future potential in this area.


Insurance brokers
We believe that over the coming decade, insurance purchase will continue to shift on-line. This is not to say that people will cease to require professional advice regarding the purchase of insurance policies, merely that many will be satisfied to receive this advice online. Of course, many people will want to retain the 'personal contact' factor, but we believe digital delivery will nonetheless result in a significant reduction in the number of insurance brokers.


Clerical jobs
Many basic clerical functions are gradually being replaced by information technology. In the late 1980s, the US Nobel Prize winning economist, Robert Solow, famously joked that you could see computers everywhere but the productivity statistics. This comment was based on clear evidence that although huge IT investment had been undertaken, companies had not integrated IT systems effectively. This began to change in the second half of the 1990s when the impact on productivity became much more apparent. The trend is only one way. B2B and B2C business activity is increasingly crowding out basic functions, involving paper based systems, in both small and large organisations.


Milk men
The expected decline in the number of milkmen is likely to be driven by changing retail patterns as people purchase more milk from supermarkets. This is not to say that everyone will purchase milk from supermarkets, merely that the numbers that do will become so large, it will not be economic to run milk franchises.


Estate agents
The potential for B2C activity in the estate agency market is obvious. Online agencies can provide potential homebuyers with a very accessible service from anywhere in the country. People can send their property details, which can be loaded on to a web site very quickly. Online delivery of this sort will reduce fixed costs and enable online agents to charge relatively low flat rate fees in comparison with current proportional charges extending into thousands of pounds. Of course, there will still be an important role for high street estate agents, but we suggest there will be fewer of them, owing to low cost online competition. It is quite possible that agents will then take on the role of professional valuation - on a fee basis.


Car dealers
Car dealers are expected to become vulnerable, to increasing B2C activity in car sales, as manufacturers either deal directly with customers online, or car dealerships become more concentrated with 'large lot' dealerships selling online and also providing very large stocks of vehicles  thereby enabling them to drive down prices when compared to smaller dealerships.


Newspaper boys/girls
Before the end of the next decade, we expect that all national newspapers will provide the option of receiving the full text of your morning newspaper online. This does not mean that the actual physical newspaper will disappear, merely that sufficient numbers will take-up the digital option, that newsagents will then find it uneconomic to maintain early morning delivery services. The fixed cost of a delivery service will then be spread over fewer customers, thereby raising the cost and further reducing demand.


Farm workers
The UK agricultural sector has weathered many storms in recent years, but farm incomes remain very low leading to a decline in the number of agricultural workers. Future reforms to the CAP will see an increasing move towards income support, thereby breaking the link between farm output and subsidy payments. The end result of these trends will almost certainly entail substantial changes in the countryside as agricultural workers turn to other activities such as tourism.


Telephone operators
We expect that IT developments in voice automation will lead to dramatic reductions in the number of telephone operators.